What will happen to the dollar in 2024 and in what currency should you keep your savings?

The Ministry of Economic Development published a forecast of the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate against the ruble 📊. The document is more pessimistic than it was before. Experts expect: if everything goes well, by 2026 they will give more than 100 rubles for $1.

The real situation may be worse. A year earlier, the analytical forecast for the value of the dollar for 2024 was at the level of ₽ 90. After that, the estimate changed to ₽ 94. The price of the evergreen may well reach a hundred.

💫 Don’t believe the dollar exchange rate forecasts? Want a second opinion? A free one awaits you online consultation at a convenient time, day 🕛. Get complete information about the dollar. Be prepared for any development of events 😎.

What will the dollar exchange rate be in 2024? Key factors in April, May

In the first days of April, the dollar exchange rate lost 0.5%. It was trading at ₽ 91. However, no significant events occurred in the foreign exchange market.

By mid-April 2021, the price of evergreen rose to ₽ 94. It reached this level for the first time in almost six months. Later, the Russian national currency began to strengthen. The drawdown of the dollar reached ₽ 92.

Some analysts believe: the negative forecast for the Russian ruble for the dollar exchange rate in April was due to a local lack of liquidity. This problem has been resolved.

According to experts, the extension of the order to sell proceeds in foreign currency played a positive role in how much the dollar will cost in 2024. It was only thanks to this state of affairs that the wooden one became stronger in April 👍.

💫 There are 43 groups of companies that must hold up to 80% of all foreign currency proceeds in bank accounts in the Russian Federation and sell 90% of its volume. Previously, the law regulating this was in force until April 30, 2024. It was extended by the government until 2025.

According to Russian officials, the forced sale of foreign currency had a positive impact on the forecast for the dollar in 2024. This helped satisfy foreign exchange demand among product importers in the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the Central Bank considers the law a mistake ⚠️. Although companies sell currency, they immediately try to buy it back. This creates additional volatility in the market.

Forecast dollar – ruble for May 2024

PIt is possible to predict the movement of the Russian ruble over a longer distance than within a month only in general terms. Various factors, such as the intensification of the presidential race in the United States, can further influence the exchange rate indicators.

At the same time, the forecast for the dollar/ruble exchange rate for May 2024 is more than clear 👌. Most of the key factors that influence it are known.

Again about the sale of foreign currency earnings

“Finam”believes that the extension of Presidential Order No. 771 is great news for the ruble. Because exporters create a large volume of supply on the market.

Veles is convinced that current oil prices and oil and gas industry revenues are comfortable for the exchange rate of the Russian national currency. At the same time, problems with external payments and an unstable influx of foreign currency help the wooden sector maintain favorable dynamics 📈.

Veles experts believe that Law No. 771 will be a solution to the problem of unstable stream and foreign currencies to the Russian market. This will have a great impact on quotes within the country.

💫 A cheap ruble is bad for the population, but good for businesses that earn foreign currency. With the same money he can afford more. Plus, its products look much more attractive on the international market.

“Digital Broker” expresses the opinion: order No. 771 is directly correlated with the ruble exchange rate. But the ruble exchange rate is highly dependent on oil and gas revenues. The result is: the higher the supplies abroad, the more foreign currency will enter the Russian market. This will affect the strengthening of the ruble 👌.

Analysts emphasize that in March the current account balance reached $13.4 billion. This is almost twice as high as last year. Export flows have outstripped imports. The Russian Federation sells more abroad than it buys.

The surplus has not yet affected the value of the ruble. Payment for March operations has not yet been received.

💫 Nabiullina said: the ruble reacts to changes in the balance of trade flows with a delay of 1-2 months. This means that the positive balance will be felt in May. The influence will continue in June. With imports everything is different. It comes on an advance payment basis. First you need to pay for the currency and send money. Only then will the goods arrive.

What awaits the dollar against the background of the actions of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank

During the period from May 6 to June 8, 2024, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation plans to buy foreign currency, gold worth ₽ 5.55 billion. At the same time, the Central Bank plans to sell ₽ 11.8 billion every day. This is 10 times more than in April ⬆️.

RBC believes that such measures will have a positive impact on the exchange rate. Against their background, the ruble will continue to strengthen. And not only in May, but also in June.

Sinara expects lower volatility from the Russian national currency than a month earlier. Since the foreign exchange supply will be higher.

Taxes are another source of support

Traditionally, the end of May is tax payment period. Exporters sell currency 💸 to contribute funds to the budget. Against this background, the ruble usually strengthens. Although this factor does not have a long-term effect.

Experts warn: the strength of the impact on the rate of tax deductions will depend on whether the problem of international payments can be sorted out.

In March, oil workers had to take out loans to pay off their income tax and other income. Therefore, at that time the ruble did not strengthen even though export volumes increased significantly. Money from these transactions entered the Russian market in April, which pushed dollar quotes down ⬇️.

Oil price

In April 2024, prices for black gold rose due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Local growth reached 4.17%. On April 19, oil was trading at $90.74 per barrel. A day later, it dropped to $87.11.

Some experts say: oil quotes are having less and less impact on the exchange rate. The correlation becomes less noticeable. For example, since January 2024, Brent has risen in price by 15%. At the same time, the ruble weakened by 3% against the dollar.

One of the reasons for this development of events is the order for the forced sale of foreign currency proceeds. It gives smooth dynamics of quotes. At the same time, the structure of exports and payment for imports become more complex.

💫 In March, the share of foreign financial assets of Russian business reached $15.5 billion compared to $4.2 billion in February. That is, the money simply hangs abroad. They do not reach the Russian market.

What will the dollar exchange rate be in May? Expert opinion

Management Company “Pervaya” believes that throughout May the dollar will remain at ₽ 94–95. Even oil and gas revenues and support from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will not help to win back positions. In addition, the rate is being put under pressure by the growing demand for currency ahead of the holidays.

Digit Broker expects the dollar to be at ₽95 and above. Especially after the May holidays.

Finam’s forecast is more vague. Experts believe: the entire second quarter of 2024, the dollar will fluctuate between ₽ 91.5–95. They warn that the exchange rate may weaken in the future.

Forecast for the ruble. Downward trend

Experts believe: strengthening the Russian national currency is far from forever 🤷‍♂️. All that keeps her afloat are temporary factors. The general trend shows that the country’s economy has many unresolved problems related to growth. This makes the ruble unstable against the dollar.

Data for the last 5 months show a persistent tendency of the Russian national currency to depreciate. That is, there are fundamental factors that are steadily moving the value of the ruble down. Unlike temporary ones, such as actions of the Ministry of Finance, sale of proceeds and tax period, they will continue to apply in the future.

💫 By the end of 2024, a dollar could cost ₽100 or more. In 2025 the situation will worsen.

In what currency should you keep your savings?

A number of experts are convinced: we need to start moving away from the toxic dollar and euro as far as possible ⛷️. To store capital, you need to choose those currencies that are not inferior to the dollar in liquidity, and are easily exchanged for Russian rubles. Popular options 3:

• 🎯 Chinese yuan;
• 🎯 UAE dirham;
• 🎯 Hong Kong dollar.

The yuan is increasingly spreading throughout the Russian Federation. On the MICEX, its trade turnover exceeds the euro and dollar.

Many Russian exporters and importers have already switched to the yuan. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank use it for currency interventions. Reserves are also starting to be stored in Chinese currency.

💫 The Yuan is stable enough against the dollar to become a substitute. In addition, Chinese inflation is quite slow. Over the past few months it has not exceeded 1%.

The dirham is strictly pegged to the dollar. Its stability is ensured by the UAE’s impressive reserves, exceeding $1.5 trillion. So far it is poorly distributed in the Russian Federation. But the situation is slowly changing. Some exporters already keep part of their proceeds in it.

The Hong Kong dollar is strictly pegged to the American dollar. Fluctuates within a narrow range. Another plus is the status of a freely convertible currency. The disadvantages are low liquidity and lack of investment instruments.

You can pay attention to the Indian rupee, Turkish lira. They are suitable for those who are associated with issuing countries, businesses or other assets.

At the same time, experts strictly ordered not to keep savings in rubles. A currency that is too unstable can burn up a large part of your capital. Any large amounts should be converted into more reliable, stable monetary units. Against the background of the ruble, even sanctioned dollars and euros look attractive.